To:                Interested Parties
From:           Hannah Goss, hgoss@azdem.org
Re:               What You Need to Know One Week Out from the GOP #AZSen Primary
Date:            Tuesday, July 26, 2022

TOPLINE: What You Need to Know One Week Out from the GOP #AZSen Primary
Just one week until Arizona’s GOP Senate primary, and this “increasingly nasty” and “intensely personal” contest has never been messier. In just seven days, Arizona Republicans will choose between the “energy tycoon,” the “billionaire-backed populist,” and Trump’s favorite punching bag to be their party’s nominee. Given that this “primary fight” has left the AZ GOP “splintered” and their already “decidedly weak” candidates “bruised and battered,” even Republicans are starting to worry about their party’s prospects in the general.
See below for our top three takeaways and what they mean for Arizona’s August 2nd primary:
1. These extreme candidates are running on an agenda that is deeply out of touch with what Arizonans actually want:

• On abortion, Masters supports a nationwide ban without exceptions, Lamon opposes abortion even in cases of rape or incest, and Brnovich supports Arizona’s pre-statehood law to criminalize abortion and jail doctors.
• On Social Security, Lamon has called to raise the retirement age and privatize the program while Masters has called to “cut the knot” and privatize as well — risking the wellbeing of Arizona’s 1.35 million seniors.
• TAKEAWAY: Between these dangerous policy positions and their divisive (and oftentimes dangerous) rhetoric, these candidates continue to prove just how dangerous they are for Arizona families.
   

2. The “decidedly weak” candidates and their Republican allies have spent upwards of $20 million on an intra-primary attack ad war, pummeling each other for voters across the state to see:

• Jim Lamon has run countless negative ads attacking Masters for being a “liberal,” “pro-open borders, pro-abortion, pro-drug smuggling,” “puppet of California Big Tech” and has directly criticized Trump’s decision to endorse Masters.
• Meanwhile, Blake Masters and his allies have poured millions into negative ads slamming Lamon for “selling out American workers,” “opposing Trump,” and attacking Brnovich for “reject[ing] Trump’s [false] voter fraud claims.”
• TAKEAWAY: With a volatile contest still too close to call, these Republicans will, no doubt, spend millions of dollars over the next week, upping the price tag on what is already “one of the most expensive primary battles in the country.”

3. Months of brutal infighting online, in print, at events, and during debates has made this “bloody” contest “intensely personal,” inevitably leaving the eventual nominee “bruised and battered” and “hurt[ing] the party’s chances” in the general: 

• After months of brutal infighting, polls show that a “sizable portion of GOP voters find none of the candidates worthy of backing.”
• Already, it’s clear this “combustible” contest has left the AZ GOP “splintered,” which will make it even more difficult for the party to unite behind their inevitable nominee after Arizona’s late primary.
• TAKEAWAY: As GOP voters choose between “a bunch of C-listers” over the next week, they’ll find themselves left with “an overwhelming sense of mediocrity” — a feeling that doesn’t bode well for the party’s chances this fall.

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