Primary Night Exposed Kari Lake Is “Going Into November As A Very Weak Candidate”

Wednesday, July 31st, 2024

ARIZONA -– Kari Lake’s “very disappointing” results in the Republican Senate primary are “[deepening] longstanding concerns among Republicans in Arizona and nationally that she cannot defeat Democrat Ruben Gallego in November.”

LISTEN:

KTAR Primary Night Panel: BARRY MARKSON: “She only has about 53.3% of the Republican vote, most everybody was saying if she got below 65%, 60% that would be a bad showing. Dr. Mike O’Neil, the 53%, if this holds up, 55%, that’s not a good look for somebody like Kari Lake who was supposed to run away with this.” MIKE O’NEIL: “I think I would characterize that as a very disappointing win, and indicative of somebody who’s probably going into November as a very weak candidate.”

WATCH:

CBS 5: ANCHOR: “Even though she is advancing to November’s general election, we talked, and wanted to know more about what this means for her and if Republicans should be concerned. Political analyst Marcus Dell’Artino talks a little bit about Lake’s potential vulnerability in the November general election.” MARCUS DELL’ARTINO: “There are some concerns, I think, going into the general election…”

READ:

Arizona Republic: Kari Lake defeats Mark Lamb in Arizona’s closely watched GOP Senate primary. “Kari Lake won the U.S. Senate nomination for Republicans as expected on Tuesday, but unofficial results suggest a far narrower victory over Pinal County Sheriff Mark Lamb than her campaign touted two weeks before voting began… If the final margins stay well below the 30-percentage point difference Lake’s campaign cited in mid-June, it could deepen longstanding concerns among Republicans in Arizona and nationally that she cannot defeat Democrat Ruben Gallego in November.”

Arizona Republic: “Lake held a sizeable overnight lead over Lamb, but one that was significantly smaller than her own campaign predicted. It raised a question as she faces Democrat Ruben Gallego in November: Does Lake need to make amends with Republican voters to win their support, and win the Senate seat?”

The Independent: MAGA Republican and Trump loyalist Kari Lake wins Arizona senate primary.“While Lake had long been the favorite, Lamb still managed to pull in around 40 percent of the vote – a sign that Lake’s far-right stance could be alienating more moderate conservatives in the state.”

Arizona GOP Consultant Tyler Montague: “Kari Lake’s negatives on display in her embarrassingly close race. She was always going to win, but a lot of people on the right sent her a message. Her general election race will be fought in the middle, and she’ll have to fight for the votes of people she has alienated.”

Axios’ Stephen Neukam: “The NRSC and the GOP put their thumbs on the scale to back Kari Lake, but her Republican challenger Mark Lamb got nearly *40%* of the vote. Should be some alarm bells going off in the Lake operation.”

NBC News’ Sahil Kapur: “Lake’s margin in her primary is notable — not exactly a blowout.”

Washington Examiner’s Samantha-Jo Roth: “This GOP primary for Senate between Kari Lake and Mark Lamb is much closer than most expected, which could spell larger problems for Republicans in the Grand Canyon State.”

Arizona Republic Opinion: Kari Lake wins, but alarm bells should be ringing wildly at GOP headquarters

By Laurie Roberts

July 30, 2024

Key points:

• …To no one’s surprise, Kari Lake won her U.S. Senate primary, but she isn’t posting anywhere near the numbers she needed to show she’s a contender in November…

• As for Lake, she needed to win 60% of the vote to show she can unify Republicans in a way that she was unable to do in 2022, when she lost the governor’s race to Democrat Katie Hobbs.

• “If (Pinal County Sheriff Mark) Lamb gets 35% to 40%, that’s a huge problem for Lake,” Republican consultant Barrett Marson told me before the polls closed.

• The underfunded, hardly noticed Lamb grabbed 39% of the vote as of Wednesday morning. Lake stood at 55% — a disappointing number given that she was the presumptive Republican nominee even before she announced she was running for the Senate last year and endorsed by Trump soon after.

• Lake needed 60% of the GOP vote to show the D.C. money crowd that she can be competitive against Democrat Ruben Gallego. That she can unite Republicans in a way that no MAGA candidate has been able to do since 2018, resulting in the loss of not one but both of Arizona’s U.S. Senate seats to Democrats.

• “Lake’s underwhelming numbers are a bad sign for her general election,” Republican consultant Tyler Montague told me…

• But the story of the night is Lake, who didn’t deliver the numbers she needed to be considered a top tier candidate for grabbing a Senate seat…

• Alarm bells should be ringing wildly over the fact that nearly four out of 10 Republican primary voters voted for the guy who barely had a campaign.

• “Shocking under performance by @KariLake,” Republican politico Jason Rose posted on Tuesday night.

• Actually, not really shocking at all.

The Hill: 5 early takeaways from Arizona’s primaries

By Caroline Vakil

July 31, 2024

Key points: 

• …Though Lake quickly captured the Republican nomination, Lamb still received a notable chunk of the GOP primary vote. 

• Lake received 53 percent of the vote to Lamb’s 41 percent with 63 percent of the estimated vote reported as of early Wednesday morning, raising questions over whether the sheriff’s supporters will ultimately migrate to her in November.

• Lake has long been a divisive figure within the GOP. She has sought to court skeptics and the John McCain faction of the Republican Party after isolating them last cycle when she ran for Arizona governor.

• But the former local news anchor has in many ways run as the same conservative firebrand that she ran as in 2022, and some of those previously skeptical of her remain unconvinced about her candidacy.

• Whether that will hurt her in November remains to be seen, but the divided vote share Tuesday suggests she might have work to do in appealing to some Republicans…