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Poll: Goddard making some headway

By Dennis Welch

The Arizona Guardian

THURSDAY, 07 OCTOBER 2010

A new poll released Thursday shows Democrat Terry Goddard closing the gap on his Republican rival, Gov. Jan Brewer, as the two candidates head into the final month of the campaign.

This is the first time in months a statewide poll has Goddard within single digits as the survey, that was paid for by Goddard's campaign, shows him trailing the governor by nine points, 45 percent to 36 percent.

Bruce Merrill, a professor emeritus at Arizona State University, conducted the poll, which differs greatly from other independent polling numbers showing the governor with a much larger lead. On Tuesday, Rasmussen Reports released a survey showing Goddard trailing Brewer by 16 points, 55 percent to 39 percent. The figures marked an improvement for Goddard, who had fallen behind Brewer by more than 20 points in earlier findings by the national polling firm.

Representatives with the Goddard campaign have dismissed Rasmussen as a Republican-friendly firm that relies on robocalls. But many nationally respected polling experts disagree. Rasmussen is one of the few companies doing independent polling in the state this year.

In a email letter to his supporters, Goddard's campaign touted the results of Thursday's poll saying, "Your hard work is paying off."

Merrill's results were based on interviews with 300 likely voters throughout the state Oct. 2-4, according to a release from Goddard's campaign. The statement did not include a margin of error. Merrill is out of the country and unavailable for comment.

In previous years, Merrill had conducted independent polling for ASU and Channel 8 KAET-TV, the Valley's local PBS station. But funding for the program was cut last spring, said Tara Blanc, an ASU professor who has worked with Merrill.

Merrill has been working as an independent contractor since the university cut the program, Blanc said.

The numbers, released on the first day of early voting, mark some good news for Goddard. He's watched his polling numbers drop since the beginning of the year when it appeared he was the odds on favorite to win the governor's race.

His campaign released a survey last month showing him within single digits, but the media and other political observers roundly rejected the results because it only questioned a small part of the state.

Since then, Goddard has stepped up his attacks on the governor in public appearances and several television ads, accusing her of cozying up to lobbyists and failing to keep state prisons secure.

Brewer, on the other hand, launched a tame television ad this week in which the governor talks about her background as she is standing on a mountain top. That ad will be appearing on cable and network stations.

Her campaign sent out a mailer this week linking Goddard to labor unions that supported an economic boycott of the state in the wake of SB 1070, as well as supporting the federal health care law passed earlier this year.

The flier was mailed to about 396,000 voters throughout the state.