A narrow mandate and a big headache
by Robert Robb
Republicans should greet their monumental victory at the national level with cautious optimism.
Arizona Republicans should greet their monumental victory at the state level with deep foreboding.
At the national level, the mandate voters gave Republicans is very narrow: stop any more big-government programs.
Economists can debate all day long about countercyclical fiscal policy. The American people aren't buying it. They didn't like bailing out the banks and car companies. They didn't like combating the recession with a big increase in federal spending. And they didn't like enacting a new big entitlement, Obamacare, when the federal government is broke.
Voters wanted an end to it. Democrats seemed to want even more, so voters turned to Republicans to put a stop to it, even though it was Republicans who started the bailouts and stimulus.
It's not, however, that voters actually want Republicans to do anything. I don't even think Republicans have a mandate to “repeal and replace” Obamacare, since Republicans remain pretty sketchy about the replace part.
Republicans can get themselves in real trouble, real quick if they don't extend unemployment benefits.
There are academic studies that show that extended unemployment benefits extend unemployment. And Republicans are increasingly inclined not to do so.
However, job seekers still vastly outnumber available jobs in this economy. The American people believe that there are a lot of innocent victims in this downturn. Tough love isn't the response they are looking for.
Fate has probably given Republicans the job of fixing the finances of the welfare state. But Republicans haven't yet signed up for that job, and voters haven't yet given it to them.
What Republicans stand for will be determined by whoever becomes their presidential nominee in 2012. In the meantime, keep President Obama and the Democrats in check and don't break anything.
State government is in even worse shape than the federal government. The federal government got into financial trouble by going on a spending spree. State government doesn't have the money to keep the lights on.
And after Tuesday's election, Republicans own state government and its problems lock, stock and barrel. They swept state offices and strongly increased their numbers in the Legislature.
After the euphoria fades, they may want to give it back.
A day of reckoning on the state budget may be arriving. The failure of Propositions 301 and 302 means that the state has a general fund deficit for the current year north of $800 million. The hole for next year is maybe twice that.
Republicans talk brave about deep spending cuts. But when it has come time to pull the trigger, they have flinched and resorted to massive borrowing, referring a tax increase and accepting billions in federal funds while denouncing the stimulus that provided them.
State spending for this year is $9.5 billion. State revenues for next year are estimated to be $8.2 billion. There is no way to reconcile those figures that will not be hugely politically unpopular. And Republicans will have no place to hide.
Former Democratic Governor Janet Napolitano can no longer be blamed. Her new programs and spending increases are long gone. Democrats in the Legislature are so sparse they would have trouble fielding a softball team.
The public wouldn't like the way Democrats reconcile those two figures any better than the way Republicans will, perhaps even less so. But Democrats won't be reconciling those figures. Republicans will. And voters aren't going to like it at all.
In politics, sometimes it's enough to just be the other guys when the public has had enough of the guys in charge.
That was true for candidate Obama in 2008. It was true for Republicans in 2010. And for Democrats in state legislative races, it may be true in 2012.
(column for 11.4.10)
Thursday, November 4, 2010 at 09:19 AM
